From Defence Spending to Household Income: A Social Accounting Matrix for FranceMario-Celestino Nardelli

Du 1 octobre 2026 au 1 octobre 2026

De 12h30 à 13h45, en salle du Conseil (1er étage de la faculté de droit, économie et gestion).
Accessible en distanciel sur l'équipe Teams "Séminaires Granem" (réservé aux membres).

Mario-Celestino Nardelli est doctorant à l'Université de Macerata (Italie), sous la direction de Francesca Severini et Rosita Pretaroli.

Sa thèse « Méthodes quantitatives pour l'évaluation des politiques économiques » s'intéresse aux dépenses de défense et à l'analyse multisectorielle en France, à travers la modélisation des tableaux des flux d'approvisionnement et d'utilisation ainsi que des tableaux d'entrées-sorties. Il est accueilli en séjour doctoral au Granem par Pr. Guido Hülsmann.

Titre :

From Defence Spending to Household Income: A Social Accounting Matrix for France

Abstract : 

One of the most important points about the domestic implications of increased defence expenditure depends on where the resulting income goes and what resources it displaces to finance it.  We develop a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for France in 2021, linking a representation of military production to household accounts in a way consistent with national accounts systems and preserving them.

We follow the wage income generated by additional defence demand across five population groups, ranked by household living standard quintiles, and examine how their consumption feeds back into the production system. From the published annual accounts, we derive the income and expenditure structure. At the same time, we model households' responses to the additional income based on explicit assumptions, which we test extensively through alternative scenarios.

We then consider procurement and financing together, holding purchases constant while changing how the funding burden is distributed across households and how that withdrawal affects their spending response.

The results show that similar aggregate production responses can coexist with markedly different distributions of the additional wage income; we also show how financing can offset part of the production supported by procurement when the contribution that weighs on households reduces consumption. The size of this offset depends on who pays it and on how households respond to income gains and withdrawals. The advantage of linking production to wage recipients and the bearers of its financial cost is that we can conditionally evaluate rearmament policies under the 2021 production structure.